How the “underdog” Djokovic can beat “world number 1” Alcaraz at the Wimbledon final

Novak Djokovic is a genius at adapting his game to dismantle an opponent. He can win his 24th slam and 8th Wimbledon title if he does the following on Sunday versus Carlos Alcaraz;

—Win the first set (and last). Novak can’t afford a slow start like he did in the 2021 French Open final versus Stefanos Tsitsipas and last year’s quarter-final at Wimbledon against Jannick Sinner. Alcaraz is better than those guys. If Carlos gets red hot early, he can hit anyone off the court. Novak can’t let Carlitos believe he can become the first man to beat Djokovic on Centre Court in 10 years.

—Slow down the pace of play. Carlitos is 20 years old. Men his age aren’t usually known for their patience. They want to get things done in a hurry. So Novak will likely get stronger the longer the match becomes a chess match. He needs to make Carlitos feel the weight of the occasion. A fifth set should favor the older and more experienced man, even if Carlos has the younger legs.

—Don’t do what Daniil did. Medvedev didn’t play a clever Medvedevil semi-final. He stood too far back on return, allowing Alcaraz to spin sliders out wide and come forward to attack. Daniil also floated returns down the middle or to the backhand corner. Alcaraz took them on his forehand and went al-Crazy on them. Even worse, Meddy, who isn’t a top 50 net player, decided to play front court tennis on several key points. He lost almost all of them.

—Alcaraz hammered Medvedev’s second serve, forcing Meddy to go too big too often. Djokovic has one of the best second serves ever in tennis, but even that might not deter Carlos from attacking. Novak needs to nail a high percentage of first serves. He’ll likely hit skidding sliders out wide or to the body, or T serves on both deuce and ad court to keep the ball out of Carlitos’ strike zone. Novak’s ability to get more free points on serve than Carlos could ultimately make the difference. 

—Return to the forehand wing of Alcaraz and keep the ball low. Djokovic often loves to hit deep returns at the feet of the server. But Alcaraz unleashed monstrous forehands from mid-baseline against Medvedev. Carlos, like Rafa Nadal, is more dangerous hitting forehands from his backhand corner than from his own forehand corner. Also like Rafa, Carlos wants to offend, not defend, with his forehand. Djokovic often coaxed errors out of Carlos’ forehand corner during the French Open. He should try to break down the Alcaraz forehand again, lest it destroy his kingdom. 

—Hug the baseline. Novak is the best ever at taking the ball early and shrinking the court. He can frustrate Carlitos if he can fetch dropshots and disarm his favorite weapon. This can also induce Carlitos to go for too much and over-hit his groundstrokes.  

—While Djokovic is a master at mini-tennis, he should try to keep Carlos away from the net. With Federer making pizza commercials, Carlos might be the best front court player on tour. Djokovic can take this away by getting to the net first or hitting his targets deep near the baseline.

—Make him skate. Novak made Sinner and others slip and slide all match, as if to remind them that it’s hard to overthrow the King when you’re on your hands and knees. Djokovic will look to hit the ball behind Carlos to make him hit the brakes and change directions. If Carlos is relatively new to moving on grass, he’s even less experienced playing on ice.

–Get in his head. Novak can’t let Prince Carlos smile his way through the final. The Djoker King needs to brush him back with body serves, or blast the ball at him at the net, or challenge his aces on the line, or get into arguments with the umpire at opportune times. Carlos seems like an amiable kid from Alicante who wants to be everybody’s friend. That’s a wonderful thing for the sport of tennis, and I hope Carlitos never changes. But Novak, in order to win, needs Carlitos to feel like he’s up against the Enemy from Hell.

—Use the crowd. Remember in 2019 when the Centre Court crowd chanted “Roger, Roger” and Djokovic said he heard “Novak, Novak”. If the crowd starts singing “Ole ole ole ole, Carlos Carlos”, Djokovic needs to hear “Nole, Nole.”

—Finally, don’t under-estimate young Carlitos. There’s too much hype about King Carlos being destined to win 30 slams. Alcaraz, who won the US Open, is currently tied with Juan Martin del Potro, Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem with one slam each.. He’s won two fewer than Stan Wawrinka and Sir Andy Murray. But, at age 20, he’s already better than Kevin Anderson, Matteo Berrettini and Nick Kyrgios when they faced Novak in the Wimbledon finals. Carlos is the most exciting shotmaker since Roger PeRFect, and he’ll have massive crowd support on Sunday from Roger and Rafa fans who still despise the Djoker for dethroning their idols. Novak, the kid from war-time Yugoslavia, needs to convince himself that he is somehow the underdog. Djokovic is perhaps the most courageous sportsman in history. He has survived NATO bombing raids, US Open officials, the Australian government and Ben Rothenberg. He has often played his best when the world is against him. That mentality should work again on Sunday.

words and images copyright Christopher Johnson Globalite Media all rights reserved